经济增长、对外贸易与环境污染:联立方程的估计Economic Growth,Foreign Trade and Environment——A Simultaneous Equation Estimation
陈红蕾,陈秋峰
摘要(Abstract)：
本文采用Huang and Labys的模型思路,通过建立一个同时包括污染方程与产出方程的联立方程组研究经济、贸易和环境之间的相互关系。研究发现我国工业二氧化硫的排放走势比较符合环境库兹涅茨倒U曲线假说,且目前尚处于倒U型曲线的左半段,即经济贸易的增长可能导致环境质量的进一步下降;现阶段我国产业结构的变动是影响环境质量的重要因素,特别是制造业结构趋重的格局不利于环境的改善;贸易自由化并未加剧环境的恶化,可以说"污染避难所"假说现阶段在我国不成立。最后在上述结论的基础上,得出一些有益的政策启示。
关键词(KeyWords)： 经济增长;对外贸易;环境污染;联立方程
基金项目(Foundation): 国务院侨办人文社科研究项目(项目编号:05GQBYB007)的部分研究成果
作者(Author): 陈红蕾,陈秋峰
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