陆志明,程实

• 1:复旦大学经济学院
• 2:复旦大学经济学院 上海200433
• 3:上海200433

摘要(Abstract)：

本文研究人民币长期均衡汇率的估计问题。从实际有效汇率的视角,在国内首次尝试采用国际先进的计量方法--Gonzalo-Granger(1995)的长期共同成份分解方法,引进了国外先进的均衡汇率决定模型--MacDonald(1998)模型来研究人民币均衡实际汇率,通过对宏观经济因素模型的分析,估计出与我国宏观经济内外均衡相一致的人民币长期均衡汇率。该研究对我国外汇管理当局制定中长期的汇率监控目标具有直接的指导意义;并对目前理论界关于人民币升值问题的探讨也具有一定的参考价值。

关键词(KeyWords)： 长期均衡汇率;长期成份分解;汇率动态

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基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Author): 陆志明,程实

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